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Is Ken Blackwell sailing into the Republican Nomination? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jeff Garvas   
Monday, 12 September 2005


As most readers of this website should know, there are three candidates vying for the Republican nomination for Governor of Ohio. They include Betty Montgomery, Jim Petro, and Ken Blackwell.

Blackwell, Ohio's Secretary of State could be described as the red-haired stepchild of Ohio's Republican party. When Ohio's Republicans stray from party ideology, Ken Blackwell shows up to remind them what they should be doing -- sometimes in the form of an incredibly successful ballot initiative.

Ken Blackwell may be best remembered for his television appearances during the 2004 general election, when president George Bush was re-elected. Blackwell challenged Democrat attempts to force unusual voting opportunities, such as allowing someone to vote anywhere they wished, not where they registered.

(Democrats have since responded with a ballot initiative to strip the Ohio’s Secretary of State of all authority to oversee elections)

Blackwell's greatest political contribution at the time was getting behind Ohio's proposed Marriage Amendment.

Ken Blackwell's position in the polls shows a significant achievement in coming from behind:


(Source: Ken Blackwell's campaign website)


(Click 'READ MORE' to continue...)

Most republicans, including Attorney General Jim Petro, also running against Blackwell in the Primary, wanted the amendment off the ballot. Blackwell made sure voters had the opportunity to vote over the issue, and got behind the issue appearing in numerous statewide television ads.

Blackwell was the only statewide officer holder to get behind the effort, which was later determined to have a significant role in getting conservatives who were likely to vote for George Bush to the polls.

The tension that Blackwell has created within his own party is unmistakable has worked to his benefit almost as if he planned it.

When Republicans decided to "temporarily" raise the sales tax, Blackwell pushed a ballot initiative aimed to force the temporary status.

When Governor Taft became a casualty of the Noe investigation and later admitted to improperly filing campaign reports, Ken Blackwell was unscathed. Since Taft's subsequent convictions, Attorney General Jim Petro has come under fire for not properly handling the investigation of Ohio's Bureau of Workman's Compensation.

Two weeks ago the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Brent Larkin wrote a column (GOP's 'outsider' has the inside track for governor) pointing out just how likely a Blackwell nomination really might come out of next year's primary.

Larkin touched on just how much the press coverage has impacted Jim Petro:
    Not only has he now been on the receiving end of two weeks' worth of awful headlines related to the scandal, but Montgomery and Blackwell won't let voters forget that he was a political bedfellow of disgraced former House Speaker Larry Householder.
Using some rather strong positions on the issue, Larkin didn't leave any doubt on where he stands on the possibility of Ken Blackwell being the Republican nominee:
    Fiction: Montgomery and Petro continue to insist they can prevail in a three-way con test.

    Fact: They can't.

    The anybody-but-Blackwell movement within the Ohio GOP isn't some small group of political nobodies. It's actually quite large, and somewhat influential. But given the fact that all the polls say essentially the same thing, it's not large enough to deny Blackwell the nomination in a three-way race.

    Every poll on the contest says essentially the same thing. A consensus would read something like: Blackwell 35 percent, Montgomery 21 percent, Petro 20 percent, with the rest un- decided. That means if Blackwell receives only one out of every six undecided votes, he wins.

    Nevertheless, ask Petro and Montgomery if they can win a three-candidate primary and both spit out the same word: "Absolutely."

    But their answer is missing a word -- "not."
Most people would consider these strong words being so many months from the 2006 Primary, but Larkin goes on to say that if Petro or Montgomery don't drop out in the next four months, voters will kick them both out May 2nd.

For years Republicans have avoided high-profile primary elections, giving voters within the party a single option.

From the Larkin column:
    In his dreams, Ohio Republican Party Chairman Robert Bennett envisions a primary where a single Republican runs unopposed. "Even in a two-way primary, the winner would come out in debt and there would be bitterness within the party," said Bennett. And in a three-way primary, Bennett concurs with almost everyone else that, "Right now, there is no question Ken Blackwell would win."
Even Bob Bennett feels that Ken Blackwell is likely to win the nomination, but he was well advised to clarify "right now" -- anything could change between now and the primary election.

An online conservative website -- Human Events Online -- caught on to Larkin's column and the situation in Ohio last Friday, too: (Time to Clear the Field for Blackwell?)

From that story:
    The “outsider” is Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. Though Blackwell may be the darling of the conservative movement, he hasn’t curried the favor of either the Ohio or national GOP. That’s not to say he hasn’t been endorsed by a lot of national mainstream leaders, because he has. Most recently, Governors Rick Perry (Tex.) and Mark Sanford (S.C.) endorsed him. Nevertheless, many GOP insiders would prefer he not win this three-way Republican primary. Blackwell threatens this peaceful prospect.

    The true irony lies in Blackwell’s popularity. As an outsider, he’s managed to distance himself from Republican Ohio Governor Robert Taft’s recent scandals. This distance has paid off: According to the [Larkin] column, “Every poll on the contest says essentially the same thing. A consensus would read something like: Blackwell 35 percent, Montgomery 21 percent, Petro 20 percent, with the rest un-decided. That means if Blackwell receives only one out of every six undecided votes, he wins.”

    For the good of the Republican Party, I think it’s time to ask someone in the Ohio Republican establishment to muster the courage to “clear the field” and give Blackwell a clean shot at the general election. The party has cleared the primary field before so why aren’t they doing it now?

    Aside from being up in the polls, Blackwell has a lot of things going for him.

  1. As a former mayor and secretary of state, he has executive branch experience.
  2. He is a charismatic speaker who has staked out the conservative wing of the Ohio GOP.
  3. Unlike legislators, he doesn’t have much of a voting record to attack—and in electoral politics, that can be a big political advantage.
  4. He wins the African-American vote in Ohio.
  5. And let’s not forget he’d be the first black GOP governor.


The Candidates:

Betty Montgomery's position on firearms makes her an unacceptable candidate for gun owners. Her history has proven where she stands, and in many public appearances where OFCC representatives were in attendance earlier this year, Montgomery's feet were held to the fire over concealed carry legislation. She failed every opportunity to come out as a pro-gun candidate.

In a Betty Montgomery (R) vs. Ted Strickland (D) general election, gun owners would most likely vote for Ted Strickland – and they’d be well advised to do so since Strickland is clearly the more firearm friendly candidate.

Gun owners who vote Republican in next year's primary will have to choose between Jim Petro and Ken Blackwell, unless one of the two steps down. Some might say that Ken Blackwell is the ideal Governor for the law-abiding gun owner, while others would point to the fact that only Jim Petro has been put in a position to prove it -- by enacting Ohio's reciprocity agreements aggressively, and defending the law aggressively in both the courts and formal opinions.

On the other hand Ken Blackwell offers the prospect of a Governor who could very well be the exact opposite of Governor Taft, and one less stumbling block to true firearms rights reform in the State of Ohio over the next four to eight years. This is a realization that would make most gun owners think twice before casting their vote.

Blackwell's campaign issues website even mentions his position on second amendment issues:
    Defending 2nd Amendment Rights

    While the US Constitution was being ratified, Samuel Adams said that the “Constitution shall never be construed to authorize Congress to infringe the just liberty of the press or the rights of conscience; or to prevent the people of the United States who are peaceable citizens from keeping their own arms.” He made it very clear that the founding fathers were not talking only about the right for militias to bear arms, but talking about the right of law-abiding citizens to bear their own arms.

    As a life member of the National Rifle Association, Ken Blackwell is steadfast and resolute in his support for the right to bear arms. In 2004, Ohio passed a conceal carry law to allow peaceable citizens to carry their firearms. As Governor, Ken Blackwell will push for legislation to stop media access to the concealed carry list. Concealed carry permit holders should have a right to privacy and not be treated like criminals. Statistics show that concealed carry permit holders are only a threat to criminals.
Ken Blackwell won the endorsement of Gun Owners of America, too. (Ohioans For Concealed Carry has not endorsed a candidate for Governor, yet -- both Blackwell and Petro have been the keynote speakers at our last two Party In The Park picnics)

Yet again those of us who own firearms will be forced to make a choice between two potentially excellent candidates for the law-abiding gun owner, with a very limited opportunity to learn exactly who the right candidate would be. Unfortunately, the primary is currently a three-way race.

GOP leaders could learn from this logic: If gun owners are forced to choose between Petro and Blackwell, how many others are looking at the situation in the same manner?

Splitting votes between two candidates is the worst-case scenario for either candidate or their supporters. In such a case the potential for a come from behind victory by the third candidate is brought into play.

Gun owners should think twice before carelessly giving Betty Montgomery the nomination due to indecision between two otherwise good candidates.